Friday, February 26, 2016

Final Predictions for 2015-16 Oscar Season

Bracing for a below-average showing this year. The way the guilds have been split up is making it hard to trust any of the statistical arguments for this or that contender. As for the crafts, some of them have all the important precursors, but would make such atypical winners. I've been forced to alter a number of my previously published predix. And calling the shorts? Forget about it. I may blank those three this year. I may be looking at a sub-18 score.

But enough flip-flopping. Consider me officially committed to these predictions:

Best Picture: The Big Short
alt: The Revenant
The way I see it, if The Big Short takes Editing, it's probably headed for the big win. If not, I have a hard time seeing it win Best Picture with only one other category in tow. But as you'll see, I'm not predicting it for Best Editing (this is my clumsy attempt to ensure I guess at least one of these neck-in-neck races correctly). Best case scenario: Spotlight proves me wrong.

Best Director: Inarritu
alt: McKay
Welcome to the elite back-to-back club, Senor.

Best Actor: Dicaprio
alt: Cranston
"Hoo-ah!"

Best Actress: Larson
alt: Ronan
Hard to complain about this particular sweeper.

Best Supporting Actor: Stallone
alt: Rylance
This feels ripe for a disappointing upset.

Best Supporting Actress: Vikander
alt: Winslet
Normally I'd be more thrilled to see the best supporting actress of the year win Best Supporting Actress. But not this way.

Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
alt: Bridge of Spies
Feels pretty locked.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
alt: Room
Also locked.

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
alt: Shaun the Sheep
This is the hardest category to speculate on the possible alternate.

Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
alt: Mustang
Strong lineup this year. Even the weakest one (that'd be Theeb) is leagues ahead of what used to rule the roost here.

Best Documentary: Amy
alt: Cartel Land
Do you think if The Look of Silence had a musician bio subplot, it might have stood a chance here? Not much else has won since this category was opened to the entire membership.

Best Cinematography: The Revenant
alt: Mad Max: Fury Road
Chivo's probably one of the only people who can three-peat and not piss me off about it. His genius is pretty inarguable. That said, shoulda been Lachman.

Best Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
alt: The Big Short
Taking an awful risk in predicting what is by far the most deserving candidate to just barely squeak it out over what is by far the least deserving candidate. I'll be doubly disappointed if wrong. But BAFTA+ACE is a tough grain to cut against. Even The Artist (itself an ACE Comedy winner) couldn't claim this Oscar.

Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
alt: Bridge of Spies
I declare this and costume design the hardest of the night. Keep an eye on my Twitter if you care to; I might be switching to Bridge of Spies at the eleventh hour.

Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
alt: The Danish Girl
Jesus, that felt weird to type. Surely this won't actually happen? This feels like a true five-way race.

Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
alt: Bridge of Spies
Will be absolutely f***ing stoked for Morricone, and absolutely f***ing bummed for Newman. What's it gonna take?

Best Original Song: "Til It Happens to You"
alt: "Writing's on the Wall"
Honestly, throwing darts here.

Best Sound Mixing: The Revenant
alt: Mad Max: Fury Road
BAFTA has an awful strong track record here...

Best Sound Editing: The Revenant
alt: Mad Max: Fury Road
... and if the mixing winner is nominated here, it almost always wins this too. Slumdog was the only time in recent memory that hasn't been the case. Are we due for another such split?

Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
alt: The Martian
Some pundits are making very logical arguments for The Revenant, but really? For one scene? Even Hugo had more effects going for it than Judy the bear. I say watch out for The Martian. Best-Picture-nominated space movies rarely lose this one.

Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
alt: The Revenant
Toss a coin.

Best Animated Short: Sanjay's Super Team
alt: Bear Story
Come on, Hertzfeldt!

Best Live-Action Short: Stutterer
alt: Shok
Shok feels like a winner; War through a child's eyes? Yeah, kinda fits. But Stutterer is just so lovely. Voters may finally be ready for another feel-good film in this category. I'm sure pulling for it.

Best Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
alt: Chau, beyond the lines
Lanzmann himself will be coming along with Adam Benzine to the Oscars, so HBO must really think they have this in the bag. Would be a nice moment, but beware the inspirational hook of Chau. If it's Last Day of Freedom, I'll plotz.

3 comments:

  1. Predictions:

    Best Picture: The Revenant
    Best Director: Inarritu- The Revenant
    Best Actor: Dicaprio
    Best Actress: Larson
    Best Supporting Actor: Stallone
    Best Supporting Actress: Winslet
    Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
    Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
    Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
    Best Documentary: Amy
    Best Cinematography: The Revenant
    Best Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Production Design: The Revenant
    Best Costume Design: Carol ***No Guts No Glory***
    Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
    Best Original Song: "Til It Happens to You"
    Best Sound Mixing: The Revenant
    Best Sound Editing: The Revenant
    Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
    Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Best Animated Short: Sanjay's Super Team
    Best Live-Action Short: Stutterer
    Best Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Any prediction in Costume Design is "no guts no glory". Five-way race.

      I'd say your call for The Revenant in production design is more daring.

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    2. I've never been this happy to be this wrong (for the most part)

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