Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for 2015-16 Season

Here they are for posterity. I haven't had a chance to properly publish my musings on each category, but I'll include a condensed commentary of my scattered logic below each prediction set. Feels like an especially all-over-the-map year, with consensus forming in very few categories. Here are my official expectations (although my most honest expectation is that there will be shocks aplenty):

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
In the four years that AMPAS has employed the variable number of Best Picture nominees, at least two of the PGA's top ten have missed the cut. The three PGA picks that feel on the bubble are Sicario, Straight Outta Compton and Ex Machina, so toss a three-sided die. I'd go with SAG nominee Compton if I honestly believed it could show up anywhere else (possibly Original Screenplay).

Best Director
Todd Haynes -- Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu -- The Revenant
Adam McKay -- The Big Short
Tom McCarthy -- Spotlight
Ridley Scott -- The Martian
Bracing myself for the George Miller snub; Smells too much like a Dark Knight/Inception situation brewing. But to balance out that pessimism, I'm putting my heart on the line and predicting that the more elitist directors branch will replace him with Todd Haynes. Probably foolish, since they could just as easily go for Spielberg.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett -- Carol
Brie Larson -- Room
Charlotte Rampling -- 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan -- Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl
BAFTA may have offered us a valuable clue to where voters are going to draw the line on category fraud this year: If the lady wouldn't be competing in the same category as her co-lead, it's okay to put her in the proper category. Hence the correct leading designation of Vikander, but not for Mara.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston -- Trumbo
Johnny Depp -- Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Revenant
Michael Fassbender -- Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne -- The Danish Girl
Neither Redmayne nor Depp feel safe to me. Matt Damon remains a viable threat, but I hope we can get someone more out of left field. Tom Hardy or Geza Rohrig would be welcome!

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh -- The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara -- Carol
Rachel McAdams -- Spotlight
Alicia Vikander -- Ex Machina
Kate Winslet -- Steve Jobs
Many pundits have had this race boiled down to Mara v. Vikander for months, only they originally had Vikander in for The Danish Girl. Does her competing for a true supporting role in a smaller, less-Oscary movie hurt her shot at the win, or does this become the obvious place to reward her for her impressive year?

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale -- The Big Short
Idris Elba -- Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo -- Spotlight
Mark Rylance -- Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone -- Creed
Easily the most nebulous category this year. Dano, Del Toro, Shannon, Tremblay and Hardy all have major precursor nominations as well. Only Rylance feels truly locked in.

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
I'm not really sure that the BAFTA/BFCA lineups are going to repeat 5-for-5, but what's the outside spoiler? If its Best Picture potential is to be believed, it may be Straight Outta Compton. What a strange, eclectic category this would be.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
Crazy to imagine Phyllis Nagy's perfect script for Carol going un-nominated. Do the right thing, AMPAS!

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Been the same five titles all season long. If GKIDS had a stronger contender than The Prophet, it'd probably figure in somewhere (and I suppose it still could).

Best Foreign Language Film
The Brand New Testament
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
Viva
With Son of Saul being the only foreign import to win anything this season, it makes guessing the other four really tough.

Best Documentary, Feature
Cartel Land
Going Clear
He Named Me Malala
Listen to Me, Marlon
The Look of Silence
I know, I know, Amy is supposed to be the foregone winner and all. But that's what everyone said about Senna four years ago. I really hope Kapadia gets it, but there has to be a big 'surprising' snub somewhere...

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
There's usually strong correlation between the ASC and Oscar. If anyone is to break in, my bet is on cinematography branch favourite Robert Richardson. The 70mm story on Hateful Eight seems like the sort of the thing the branch would geek out over.

Best Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Spotlight
Oddly enough, the BAFTA vote has not lined up very closely with Oscar these last few years. Consider Sicario my indulgent no-guts-no-glory prediction for the year. It would not be undeserved. For all other purposes, The Revenant and Bridge of Spies are safer bets.

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The nuanced set decoration of Brooklyn and Carol may in fact be too nuanced to win the branch's favour, though they're certainly still in play. 'Surprise' nominee I'm most hoping for: Crimson Peak.

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Cinderella
Carol
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
This branch is more averse to genre design than the production designers, so I can't see them doing something as cooling as stumping for Mad Max, but they really should. The trickier part is guessing what they'll replace it with. More often than not, they include a film that was overlooked by the CDG. Going out on a limb for Far from the Madding Crowd.

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Not at all confident in them nominating Star Wars. I know they love John Williams (don't we all), but they never cited him for any of the prequels. Is there enough original music for them? I'd rather they go for Carol or Sicario instead.

Best Original Song
"Flashlight" from Pitch Perfect 2
"See You Again" from Furious 7
"Simple Song #3" from Youth
"So Long" from Concussion
"Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Yikes, what a piddly year. I don't even wanna think about how off my predictions will be. I'll be lucky to get one out of five.

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The sound categories usually match up 4/5, and both BAFTA and the CAS cited Bridge of Spies. More likely than not, it'll be replaced in Sound Editing, but by what?

Best Sound Editing
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Wylie Stateman is highly respected by the sound branch, so The Hateful Eight it is.

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Apparently The Revenant dazzled at the vfx branch bakeoff. That bear sequence counts for a lot.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Impossible to tell with this branch.

1 comment:

  1. My predictions

    Best Picture

    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Carol
    Inside Out
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Room
    Spotlight
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Best Director

    Todd Haynes - Carol
    Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant
    Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
    Ridley Scott - The Martian
    Steven Spielberg - Bridge of Spies

    Best Actor

    Michael Caine - Youth
    Johnny Depp - Black Mass
    Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
    Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
    Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

    Best Actress
    Cate Blanchett - Carol
    Brie Larson - Room
    Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
    Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
    Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn

    Best Sup. Actor

    Christian Bale - The Big Short
    Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
    Tom Hardy - The Revenant
    Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
    Sylvester Stallone - Creed

    Best Sup. Actress

    Jennifer Jason Leigh - The HatefulEight
    Rooney Mara - Carol
    Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
    Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
    Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

    Best Original Screenplay

    Bridge of Spies
    The Hateful Eight
    Inside Out
    Spotlight
    Youth

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The Big Short
    Brooklyn
    Carol
    Room
    Steve Jobs

    Best Foreign Language Film

    The Brand New Testament
    The Fencer
    Labyrinth of Lies
    Mustang
    Son of Saul

    Best Documentary Feature

    Amy
    Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
    He Named Me Malala
    The Hunting Ground
    The Look of Silence

    Best Original Score

    Bridge of Spies
    The Hateful Eight
    Inside Out
    Sicario
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Best Original Song

    "Earned it" - Fifty Shades of Grey
    "See You Again" - Furious 7
    "Simple Song #3" - Youth
    "Til it Happens to You" - The Hunting Ground
    "Writing's on the Wall" - Spectre

    Best Sound Editing

    The Hateful Eight
    Inside Out
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Best Sound Mixing

    Bridge of Spies
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Best Animated Feature

    Anomalisa
    Inside Out
    The Peanuts Movie
    Shaun the Sheep Movie
    When Marnie Was There

    Best Cinematography

    Bridge of Spies
    The Hateful Eight
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant
    Sicario

    Best Makeup

    Black Mass
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant

    Best Production Design

    Bridge of Spies
    Cinderella
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    Best Costume Design

    Brooklyn
    Carol
    Cinderella
    The Danish Girl
    Far from the Madding Crowd

    Best Film Editing

    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

    Best Visual Effects

    Jurassic World
    Mad Max: FuryRoad
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Star Wars: The Force Awakens

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