Sunday, January 31, 2016

ACE winners and SAG Predix [UPDATE: Winners]

It's a busy weekend of guild activity. The American Cinema Editors handed out hardware last night to all the usual suspects: Amy and Inside Out received their due in the ghettoized doc and animation categories (but seriously, the editing in those two are good enough to be up for the Oscar), while the current fruntrunners for the Academy's editing prize, The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road, got to split the top honours due to comedy/drama distinctions. I'm leaning the way of The Big Short coming out on top in the end, but a BAFTA win for Mad Max may yet give me hope.
Both of those are also in the hunt for awards from the Screen Actors Guild tonight. Mad Max is sure to take the prize for Best Stunt Ensemble, but The Big Short has its eyes set on the more significant Best Ensemble category. If Spotlight is going to make a push back in the latter half of phase two, it must start here. If it loses, however, then it truly is a runaway train.

Three of the four individual acting categories feel locked into place, but for Best Supporting Actor due to the absence of presumed frontrunner Sylvester Stallone. If Mark Rylance or Christian Bale (the only SAG contenders nominated for the Oscar) win, then I think this is still a race to the finish.

My guesses:
Best Stunt Ensemble: Mad Max [WINNER: Mad Max] Because d'uh.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale [WINNER: Idris Elba] So this ends up not affecting the Oscar race for the moment. Only the forthcoming BAFTA ceremony can shed any light on who Sly's greatest challenger really is.
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander [WINNER: Alicia Vikander] Category fraud lives.
Best Leading Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio [WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio] Cannot be stopped.
Best Leading Actress: Brie Larson [WINNER: Brie Larson] But will the Brits prefer her to Irish darling Saoirse Ronan?
Best Ensemble: The Big Short [WINNER: Spotlight] Thank God! This is enough to at least keep the Best Picture race interesting for another week. And even if this proves to be the only major prize that Spotlight claims over The Big Short, it's certainly the most satisfying and deserved prize to win.

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