Saturday, February 21, 2015

Final Predictions for 2014-15 Oscar Season

[REPOST]

I've hemmed and hawed for long enough. Time to commit my guesses to digital ink. I should be committed myself, because these have driven me positively crazy!

If you've been keeping track of my daily category-by-category analyses, you already know most of my predictions, but I'll just repeat them in this one tidy post for posterity (with alternates and a handful of mini-rationales for the predictions I've changed).

Best Picture: Birdman
Alt: Boyhood

Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Alt: Richard Linklater

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
Alt: Michael Keaton

Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Alt: Felicity Jones

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Alt: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
Alt: Emma Stone

Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Alt: Whiplash

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alt: Big Hero 6

Best Documentary: CitizenFour
Alt: Virunga

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Alt: Wild Tales

Best Cinematography: Birdman
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing: Boyhood
Alt: Whiplash
Just four days ago I made a gutsy call for American Sniper and it immediately felt off somehow. Reading a bunch of more sober opinions around the Oscarweb has convinced me that Boyhood, as the presumed Best Picture runner-up, makes more sense, but what an atypical winner it would make. I'll rejoice if it goes to Whiplash, but I'll be kicking myself if my Sniper hunch turns out to be right all along.

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Into the Woods

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Into the Woods

Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Soooo pulling for Desplat here.

Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Alt: American Sniper or Whiplash
Look at this category! I can't even decide on a single alternate, let alone a single winner. I really don't believe the sound categories will split, but predicting a split is the only way to salvage at least one prediction.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Alt: Birdman

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Alt: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Animated Short: Feast
Alt: The Dam Keeper
When I can't decide between two very strong contenders, I just pick the one I'd least prefer. Not that I dislike Feast, mind you.

Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
Alt: Boogaloo & Graham

Best Documentary Short: Joanna
Alt: Crisis Hotline
Going out on a limb for the best of the lot, and Joanna is a really likely winner, but I'd hate to predict it and by wrong. By the way, I achieved a personal first this year by managing to see all five nominees in this category... They are not a cheerful bunch.

5 comments:

  1. Picture: Boyhood, alt.: The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Director: Richard Linklater, alt: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
    Actor: Michael Keaton, alt. Eddie Redmayne
    Actress: Julianne Moore, alt. Marion Cotillard
    Sup. Actor: J.K. Simmons, alt. Edward Norton
    Sup. Actress: Patricia Arquette, alt. Emma Stone
    Original Screenplay: Birdman, alt. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Adapted Screenplay: The Imitaton Game, alt. Whiplash
    Original Score: The Theory of Everything, alt. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Original Song: "Glory", alt.: "Everything is Awesome!!"
    Sound Editing: American Sniper, alt. Interstellar
    Sound Mixing: Whiplash, alt. American Sniper
    Animated Feature: Dragons 2, alt. Song of the Sea or The Tale of Princess Kaguya
    Cinematography: Birdman, alt. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Makeup: Guardians of the Galaxy, alt. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel, alt. Into the Woods
    Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel, alt. Into the Woods
    Film Editing: Boyhood, alt. Whiplash
    Visual Effects: Interstellar, alt. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here goes!

    Best Picture: Birdman
    Alt: Boyhood

    Best Director: Richard Linklater
    Alt: Alejandro G. Inarritu

    Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
    Alt: Bradley Cooper

    Best Actress: Julianne Moore
    Alt:None (I am just that confident about it winning)

    Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
    Alt: None

    Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
    Alt: None

    Best Original Screenplay: Birdman
    Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
    Alt: The Imitation Game

    Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
    Alt: Big Hero 6

    Best Documentary: CitizenFour
    Alt: None

    Best Foreign Language Film: Leviathan (the academy have consistently been making bold choices these past few years)
    Alt: Ida

    Best Cinematography: Birdman
    Alt: None

    Best Film Editing: Boyhood
    Alt: Whiplash

    Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Alt: Into the Woods

    Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Alt: Into the Woods

    Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
    Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel (hoping Desplat wins too)

    Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
    Alt: American Sniper

    Best Sound Editing: Birdman
    Alt:American Sniper

    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
    Alt: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy

    ReplyDelete
  3. Neither of you's guessing the shorts? Weak sauce!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Picture: Boyhood
    Director: Birdman
    Actor: Redmayne
    Actress: Moore
    Supporting Actor: Simmons
    Supporting Actress: Arquette
    Original Screenplay: Budapest Hotel
    Adapted Screenplay: Imitation Game
    Editing: Whiplash
    Cinematography: Birdman
    Score: Theory of Everything
    Song: Glory
    Sound Editing: American Sniper
    Sound Mixing: Whiplash
    Costume: Grand Budapest Hotel
    Production Design: Grand Budapest Hotel
    Documentary: Finding Vivian Maier
    Foreign: Ida
    Animated: How to Train Your Dragon 2
    Visual Effects: Interstellar
    Makeup: Grand Budapest Hotel
    Shorts: The Dam Keeper, The Phone Call, Our Curse

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bold choice, going with Finding Vivian Maier.

      Delete