Friday, February 22, 2013

Final Predictions for 2013 Oscars

Man, I thought that after last year's dismal 15/24 showing I would be due for a bounce-back year, but I might do even worse! There are only nine categories in which I am relatively confident in my prediction; Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Foreign Film, Documentary, Editing, Cinematography, Song, and VFX. I could conceivably get the remaining 15 wrong, which would be an all-tie low for me. These last two years will have effectively killed my previously maintained 75% average. Argh!

Anyway, for the record, here are my full final predictions (with alternates) and some annotations:

Best Picture:
Argo
(alt. Silver Linings Playbook)
Life of Pi is still very much in the equation, and even Lincoln could surprise.

Best Director:
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
(alt. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook)
Tough race to call. Steven Spielberg is might even have a shot.

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
(alt. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables)
No contest.

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
(alt. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour)
Talk about a coin toss. The BAFTA win tempts me to pick Riva, but she really would be an atypical winner.

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
(alt. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)
Throw a five-sided die.

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
(alt. Sally Field, Lincoln)
Lock.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Argo
(alt. Silver Linings Playbook)
If Argo's really in business for Best Picture, it should win here. If something else wins, watch out!

Best Original Screenplay:
Django Unchained
(alt. Amour)
So tough. They almost always try to go with the classier option in this category, which would suggest Amour. But I'm gonna go with Django. Hope I'm wrong.

Best Animated Feature:
Brave
(alt. Wreck-It Ralph)
I'm thinking Brave is more appealing to older types than Wreck-It Ralph. Wouldn't it be great to see Frankenweenie surprise!

Best Foreign Language Film:
Amour
(alt. Kon-Tiki)
Even this category has me sweating. Will the contingent that came out to the screenings be representative of those who rallied behind Amour in the nominations phase? Or will they be more the type that appreciate's the familiar rhythms and production value of Kon-Tiki?

Best Documentary:
Searching for Sugar Man
(alt. The Invisible War)
Seems like a lock.

Best Cinematography:
Life of Pi
(alt. Skyfall)
Typical winner.

Best Film Editing:
Argo
(alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Again, if Argo loses this one, Best Picture may be more of a nail-biter.

Best Production Design:
Anna Karenina
(alt. Les Miserables)
Will Life of Pi get by on general momentum in the craft categories? It certainly could.

Best Costume Design:
Anna Karenina
(alt. Les Miserables)
Really hoping for Anna Karenina in both design categories. Don't wanna be wrong about these ones!

Best Original Score:
Life of Pi
(alt. Argo)
No winner would surprise me here.

Best Original Song:
"Skyfall", Skyfall
("Suddenly", Les Miserables)
Lock?

Best Sound Mixing:
Les Miserables
(alt. Life of Pi)
If Les Mis loses, whoever wins will almost certainly take Sound Editing as well (unless it's Lincoln, but that's not happening).

Best Sound Editing:
Life of Pi
(alt. Skyfall)
Toughest craft category to call. Go Wylie Stateman!

Best Visual Effects:
Life of Pi
(alt. The Hobbit)
Lock.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Les Miserables
(alt. The Hobbit)
Could go any way.

Best Animated Short:
Adam and Dog
(alt. Paperman)
Confession time: I think Paperman is the most logical prediction in this category. My head says it makes sense, but my heart wants Paperman to win so much that I just couldn't bear to be wrong. I'm predicting Adam and Dog in hopes of being wrong. For gambling purposes, Paperman is the one to go with. Now watch it be Head Over Heels!

Best Live-Action Short:
Curfew
(alt. Buzkashi Boys)
Your guess is as good as mine.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects:
Open Heart
(alt. Inocente)
Fits the mold, but will probably be something else.

Enjoy the Oscars, everyone!

3 comments:

  1. You seem to forget that Lincoln has twelve nominations, the most of any film this year. For a film to score that many and only win one award seems pretty unlikely. Aargh! At this point the race in so many categories is wide open. When the time comes, you may as well just vote for your favorite movie. Who knows, it might win!

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  2. I second him. Lincoln seems the most Oscar-y to me. Even though Argo would be a more than welcome inclusion, I still get the sinking feeling that the Oscars will go for the one who is the most Oscar-y. But again, this is the most nail-biting year I've ever been in, nothing like last year.

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  3. I agree its better to be wrong and pleasantly surprised than wrong and disappointed. That said, this is probably the hardest prediction year ever, with any movie pulling a potential sweep. Thats why I am hedging and spreading the love over many categories, assuming there will be no sweep at all.

    Picture, Editing - Argo
    Director, Sound Editing, VFX, Production, Score, Cinematography - Life of Pi
    Original Screenplay, Foreign - Amour
    Actor, Adapted Screenplay - Lincoln
    Supporting Actress, Sound Mix - Les Miserables
    Actress, Supporting Actor - Silver Linings Playbook
    Costume - Anna Karenina
    Song - Skyfall
    Makeup - Hobbit
    Shorts - Paperman, Curfew, Open Heart
    Animated - Brave
    Documentary - Sugar Man

    Editing and Actress were the hardest to make. I hope I am not wrong.

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